Poker

It's interesting that Arsene referred to the end of the transfer window as a 'game of poker', because that's exactly the metaphor that I've been thinking of for the last few days. Partly this derives from my interest in the Miami Dolphins, for this is a big weekend for football and American football in terms of the squad or roster: the football transfer window shuts at midnight on September 1 (Monday), while all 32 NFL teams must trim their squads (called 'rosters' in the NFL) to 53 players by 4pm today - down from an initial 75 on Thursday. If you think about it, that's a lot of players becoming available at once: 22 times 32 is 704. Some of these will be 'stashed' on 8-man 'practice squads', the rest released onto the 'waiver wire' (if they have less than 4 years NFL experience) or made free agents. Miami Dolphins, as they had the worst record last year, has first dibs on all waiver wire players - so I expect the Dolphins front office to be very busy over the next couple of days, as the 54th best player (cut) on the Patriots, Colts, Cowboys or Chargers rosters might be a lot better than the Dolphins' 40th. The bottom dozen on the Dolphins's roster will be looking over their shoulders this weekend - no surprise that some of them played 'like demons' in the final pre-season game on Thursday, to try to keep their place on the roster.
The New Orleans game was the final pre-season game, usually not much of a spectacle as head coaches don't want to play their starters and have them injured 10 days before kickoff. Surprisingly, the Dolphins won. They lost their first preseason game, a tight one to the Buccaneers (who were NFC South champions last year); but then beat playoff contenders the Jacksonville Jags, the terrible Kansas City Chiefs and then the Saints, who are also a playoff wildcard team. Last time the Dolphins were 3-1 in preseason, they went 11-5 in the regular season. This won't happen this time; although the arrival of former Jets QB Chad Pennington (who was bumped from his former team when they signed Bret Favre, who revoked his decision to retire from the Packers last year and was traded to the Jets, the Fins' bitterest rivals) has given the Fins' a much needed passing game, there is a lack of depth behind the starters which might get exposed if injuries start to bite, as occurred last season. I'm expecting 6-10. The Fins will get to pick in the top 10 again in the 2009 draft if so, meaning better opportunities for rebuidling, as the Parcells team has proved that they are excellent evaluators of talent. Of this year's draft, LT Long, DE Langford and OG Thomas are already starters; DE Merling and QB Henne excellent backups. 5 high-quality players from a draft is stellar stuff.
Pennington's arrival, and the emergence of the rookie Chad Henne, displaced the two QBs who were in Miami before the draft: last year's draft pick John Beck - who was knocked to pieces last year when asked to start behind an offensive line that let multiple express trains through per game to squash him flat - and free agent signing Josh McCown have had hardly any practice time, and precious little preseason game time, since then. Both are 'on the outs'; and yesterday, McCown was traded to the Carloina Panthers. Beck still may be traded too, and the Fins might pick up a cut QB from another team to act as the 3rd-stringer, 'holding the clipboard', if value can be got for Beck.
This is what I mean about playing poker. VP of operations Bill Parcells and his GM Jeff Ireland have proved themselves expert poker-players in the offseason and preseason: the Jason Taylor situation was finally resolved when an injury to the Washington Redskins's starting defensive end necessitated that they acquire a replacement: instead of the 3rd or 4th round draft pick being suggested for Taylor around the 2008 draft, the Fins picked up the Skins's 2009 2nd rounder, a much more valuable pick. (As it happens, the Skins have a new head coach, new offensive system, and play in the toughest division of all, the NFC East, against the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles. For all Taylor's desire to play with a contender, the Skins may well not make it into the postseason this year. And the worse record the Skins have, the better value their 2nd rounder becomes.) Parcells and Ireland played poker with Taylor, and won; they played poker with McCown, and won, again because another team had injuries. It's a waiting game, and Parcells can out-wait anyone.
That's why I thought of Arsene's playing of the transfer game as poker. He keeps an admirable straight face, so much so that the fans (and me) despair that we will sign anyone. Yesterday's press conference, where he said that the Arsenal 'might' sign 'one or two' gives reason for optimism, though, as does Danny Fiszman's insistence that if Arsene wanted to buy a £30 million stiker, he could. So perhaps we aren't skint; perhaps Arsene will do a couple of deals; perhaps it'll be all right in the end.
But the rumblings, the grumblings, and particularly the booing of Adebayor, the jeering of Bendtner and Eboue, all suggest that something has changed at Arsenal recently. Arsene's credit in the bank is perilously close to be overdrawn; if the Arsenal finances aren't as bad as we feared, Arsene has his own credit crunch to deal with.

Skint

It's the only explanation for the tightness in my stomach, the tiredness in my bones, the ache in the leg I broke 5 years ago - the Arsenal are skint. Why else would Arsene have us believe that the squad as it stands, having let go Diarra, Flamini, Hleb, Gilberto, Lehmann, Hoyte, and sent on loan Senderos, is as strong as last year's? When only Nasri, the currently crocked Silvestre and Bischoff, and the young lad Ramsay have come in? I can only imagine that Arsene and Peter Hill-Wood are covering up the fact the there is no money to spend - otherwise, why not buy an exerienced central midfielder to play with Cesc?
It's as worrying a time for Gooners as there has been since 1995. We're not that bad - but the signs aren't good.

Endgame?

OK folks, this is it. The hysterical reaction to defeat at Craven Cottage on Saturday points towards something - not just the 'three years without a trophy' fever of fans who have never known anyone but Wenger in charge - a feeling, a sense of time's winged chariot drawing near. I'm no doomsayer; last year I pooh-poohed all the prognosticators of Arsenal's demise, scoffed at Spurs's chances of overhauling us. And I was right. But now; now... Senderos is apparently the latest to leave, this year following Diarra, Lehmann, Flamini, Hleb and Gilberto. Senderos's departure seems to signal the first breach in the dam of Arsene's youth policy. I liked the signing of Silverstre (even though he was injured straight away) but not if he was signed at the expense of Senderos or Djourou. What is going on?
Well, this is what I think might happen this season:
1. Arsene will sign no-one of first-team calibre before the end of the summer transfer window.
2. The team will finish third in their Champions League pool and drop into the UEFA cup.
3. The team will struggle with injuries to senior players again, and an over-reliance on young players will result in highly uneven results, especially away from the Emirates.
4. Arsenal will be well adrift of the top three by Christmas, possibly even out of the top four.
5. Arsenal lose in the semi-finals of the UEFa cup, struggle after Christmas, and finish outside the top four, qualifying for the UEFA cup in 09-10.
6. Arsene Wenger resigns as Arsenal manager.
7. Danny Fiszman sells his stake in the club. It is bought by an overseas oligarch who immediately refinances Arsenal's debt. The composition of the board changes markedly.
8. Cesc Fabregas is sold to Barcelona, Clichy to AC Milan, etc etc.
9. The board consider replacing Arsene with Tony Adams... And that, my friends, would be a total disaster.

I hope this scenario never comes to pass. But I fear something like it will. We all can feel the winds of change. The blogonauts are but leaves blowing in it. Wait for the first 'Wenger Out' chant of the winter carried on the breeze.

That's the first version, the fear version. This is the upside version:

1. Arsene signs Xabi Alonso, a central defender and another central midfielder (Inler) before Monday.
2. Cesc returns and stays fit all season; his partnership with Alonso becomes the best in the Premier League.
3. Djourou emerges as Gallas's best defensive partner, stablising the defence. Gallas learns from last year. Silvestre turns out to be an astute squad signing, giving the opportunity for Clichy to be rested. Song provides excellent cover in central midfield.
4. Vela and Bendtner emerge as the best strike partnership at the club, and play an increasingly important role as the season goes on. Adebayor finally finds some form after Christmas, propelling Arsenal back into the title mix.
5. Arsenal qualify for the knockout stages in the Champions League, but go out to Chelsea in the quarters (who win it).
6. The reserves finally win the Carling Cup, beating Aston Villa in the final.
7. Arsenal finish third again. Spurs are relegated.
8. Arsene resigns.

What?! I really do feel the endgame is near; if not this year, then next, or perhaps the year after. But soon, sooner than we think - and sooner than most of us would wish.

10 Things for frustrated blogonauts to remember

1. Arsenal are not a 'big club' in the way that Real Madrid or even Manchester United are. They do not pay very large transfer fees for established stars and rarely have. (The stars of the 1980s team were over the hill, for instance). There are no £25million Ferdinands or Rooneys in the Arsenal squad. If Adebayor is sold for £30million, do not expect the club to spend a similar amount on a replacement.
2. Do not judge players before you have seen them play. On the comments of one blog I saw yesterday someone call Amaury Bischoff 'rubbish'. How does he know? Because Bischoff's a reserve at Werder Bremen? I expect the same person wailed at the departure of Flamini, who was plucked, unheralded, from Marseille. Forget the 'who he?' reaction with Arsene signings. Think Clichy, Flamini, Vieira.
3. Arsenal conduct all transfer dealings in secret. This is frustrating for the fans, but almost certainly hardly any of those players 'linked' with Arsenal will arrive. Remember when Sol Campbell was revealed as an Arsenal player in 2001? Who expected that?
4. Arsenal finished four points behind United last season.
5. We are not the only club to be preyed upon this season. Rivals may lose Cristiano Ronaldo, Lampard, Drogba etc.
6. In a tightening financial climate, Arsenal's sensible financial policies will not see the future of the club put in jeopardy. There will be no Leeds scenario here - unless an Usmanov manages to get hold of the club. Then will be the time to really worry.
7. Think beyond the end of a goldfish's concentration span (the typical neural interval of the 24-hour, 'news'-junkied, febrile blogonaut. And don't worry, I keep checking NewsNow myself.) The transfer window doesn't close until midnight on August 31.
8. Count your lucky stars. (Fabregas, Clichy, Sagna, Toure, Walcott, etc etc). Imagine what the blogosphere would have made of near-relegation in 1975 and 1976 (finishing 16th and 17th), the over-the-hill gang of 1985/6, or flirting with relegation again in 1995. Arsene has constructed the most successful period in Arsenal history since the 1930s. Even if it is coming to an end, we've been lucky. Think what Arsenal fans suffered in the 1950s and 1960s (one championship in 20 years), or between 1971 and 1989 (one FA Cup and one League Cup win).
9. As I said at the beginning, Arsenal are not a 'big club' like Manchester United (or even Liverpool in the 1970s and 80s), in terms of a period of sustained domination of the league, in terms of European success, or in being the team that players wanted to play for above all others. We might have turned it around had we won the league in 2003, thereby winning three in a row; but we didn't.
10. By a remarkable succession of conjuring tricks, Arsene has kept Arsenal in the top three or four (mainly top two) for the entirety of his time as manager, with a budget that cannot be compared to United or Chelsea or the European giants in Spain and Italy. We've had one of the greatest ever club managers running our club since 1996, and he has transformed Arsenal from top to bottom. If and when he goes, there's an excellent youth system in place, a new stadium that will generate competitive revenues, and he has changed what Arsenal means to football fans around the world. No more 'boring, boring Arsenal'; we're now the champions of pure football. In 1995, who would have thought it?

I began blogging by working through my frustrations, but they are as nothing compared to the fans who have only really known Arsene as manager. Like frustrated teens (as some may well be), they long for the father-figure to be deposed. Have a care. Before Arsene came Rioch; GG; Don Howe; and Terry Neill. Be careful what you wish for.

Top 30 countdown

Arsenal.com have recently been counting down the best ever Arsenal players. Here's my own list (from players in my own lifetime):

1. Dennis Bergkamp
2. Thierry Henry
3. Patrick Vieira
4. Liam Brady
5. Tony Adams
6. Ian Wright
7. Paul Merson
8. David Seaman
9. David O'Leary
10. Robert Pires
11. Pat Jennings
12. Kenny Sensational
13. Charlie George
14. Ray Kennedy
15. Paul Davis
16. Nigel Winterburn
17. Marc Overmars
18. Sol Campbell
19. Cesc Fabregas
20. David Rocastle
21. Michael Thomas
22. Pat Rice
23. John Lukic
24. Freddie Ljungberg
25. Martin Keown
26. Lee Dixon
27. Charlie Nicholas
28. Ray Parlour
29. Steve Bould
30. Alan Smith

That said, I'd now like to pay tribute to no.28 on my list, Ray Parlour.
Ray came into the Arsenal team after George broke up the 1991 Championship side. He had shoulder-length curly blonde hair then, an all-action muppet of a player, hurtling around the pitch with energy but little plan or effectiveness. I think he played some part in the 1993 League Cup win (the one where Big Tone dropped Steve Morrow onto the pitch after the final whistle went and broke his arm). As the club disintegrated in GG's dotage, then was revitalised (partly - out of the ICU anyway) by Rioch then (fully) by Arsene, Ray seemed destined to go the way of David Hillier or Ian Selly - especially after his association with the laddish, drinking culture that Arsene cleared away, epitomised in his Ray 'Pizza' Parlour tabloid nickname (so-called after he got into trouble when he let off a fire extinguisher at a pizza restaurant early in his career).
But no. Under Arsene, Ray was a different player entirely.
In fact, I have always thought that, for all the excellence of Bergkamp and Overmars and the emergence of Anelka, the real man of the season for us in the 1998 Double campaign was Ray Parlour. Playing right midfield, Ray was crucial to the balance of the team. He knew when to tuck in and make three in the middle with Paddy and Petit to mix it; he knew when to get wide to provide an outlet for a quick counterattack; he knew when to release the ball back to Dennis or Paddy to play in Overmars or Anelka. In a team of gifted players, he knew not to play with ego, but to work within his own limitations, playing for the team, for the win. Unshowy, unflashy, often unnoticed, Ray was always more than a 'water carrier' (as Cantona dubbed Deschamps): he was tactically one of the best English midfielders of his generation. England managers never noticed him, partly because Beckham came to prominence by 1998, playing wide right; but Beckham was not a team player in the same way, but a kind of quarterback. Beckham was certainly no tactical genius, however sublime that right boot might have been for whipping in a free kick. Ray knew what to do in games; his technique was sound; and he could score goals. The crowning glory was when the 'Romford Pele' cruised across the Cardiff turf in the 2002 Cup Final and smote the ball arcing high into the top corner of Cudicini's goal to put us 1-0 up; but ever after, even when Ray was no longer a first-team choice, he was the perfect substitute, who got the pace of the game immediately and played as the match required, selfless and full of heart.
I think Ray Parlour is one of the great Arsenal players, a youth team player who gave his very best to the club and was at the hub of some magnificent achievements, the most sustained success for the club since the 1930s. He went off to Middlesbrough and others where eventually time and injuries wore him down; in more sentimental times, he might have finished his career with the Arsenal. I hope he comes back to the club in some capacity, and we could certainly do with Razor, circa 1998, next season.

Giving up on football

As I stated in a previous post, what has really galled and repulsed me over the past year or so is not, on reflection, the Arsenal, so much as it is the current state of football itself. Again, I must reassert that I'm no nostalgic - I was there in the bad mid-70s, bad mid-80s and bad mid-90s. But something about the current culture of football, and the popular culture in which it is nested, is rotten; nay, even perhaps close to collapse.
Arsene himself said just a day or two ago that he thought that the era of the transfer fee was coming to an end. I would put it more bluntly. The era of the footballer's binding contract is coming to an end. Bosman inaugurated our current era of player mobility; the Webster ruling furthered it; and the unwillingness of FIFA and UEFA to impose its own rules about tampering with other clubs' players (epitomised by the foolish Platini, who inveighs against clubs with large debts or large overseas playing contingents yet endorses Cristiano Ronaldo's 'right' to leave Old Trafford, contract notwithstanding, and join Real Madrid) leaves the door open for a degree of player mobility that will erode any possibility of long-term team-building by less financially powerful teams and place even more securely in the hands of the wealthy a dominant position with regard to trophies and cash flows.
There seems to be a multi-tier ranking among European (i.e. world) football clubs. At the very top are AC Milan, Inter, Real Madrid and Barcelona, who cherry-pick the best available talent from other clubs not in this elite group, largely through means of agents, 'super-agents' and tame media outlets such as AS or Marca, by 'unsettling' players and then dealing with the clubs. Manchester United (as shown through the pursuit of Owen Hargreaves) and Chelsea (the Ashley Cole case) are on the periphery of this group. In the next tier are teams such as Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern, Juve, Roma, Sevilla and Valencia perhaps, who are (in the main) Champions League qualifiers year-on-year with the financial muscle to attract high quality players. Below that, teams such as Ajax, Werder Bremen, Monaco, Villareal, Fiorentina, PSV. And so on in a vast pyramid. Each tier preys upon those below.
That is why I feel aggrieved at Adebayor's stupid, insensitive, greedy comments vis a vis a move to Milan or Barca, but also understand that it is what we did to PSG with Anelka, Marseille with Flamini, and so on.
Arsene has kept Arsenal at the bottom end of the European top table by a canny knack of spotting and developing players. The corollary of this, as with the above-mentioned Anelka and Flamini, is that these players come to the notice of teams in the tier above who offer a large transfer fee (or very large contract; or both) to secure that player for their own team. Arsenal have therefore to develop another to fill this gap, just as Ajax have done for 30 or 40 years. Ajax have been chronically prevented from keeping together groups of developed players because they have a reputation for producing excellent young talent; Arsenal now play like the great Ajax sides, produce players like the Ajax system, and are preyed upon like Ajax are. Indeed, one of the players we have been linked with as a possible Adebayor replacement is Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, the latest Ajax 'starlet'.
Like Ajax, Arsenal are particularly vulnerable to changes in player mobility because their continued success relies upon developing young talent, but they do not have the financial resources to ward off bigger sharks. In Ajax's case, this is because they play in the comparatively small Dutch league; in Arsenal's case, because they are still in a process of developing their capitalization and financial power (the building of the Emirates) and because they compete domestically against Manchester United and Chelsea who, for different reasons, have far greater economic power than Arsenal. Arsenal therefore struggle to win domestic (let alone European) trophies on a year-by-year basis, and, therefore, eventually to retain ambitious players.
For clubs like Arsenal, I think the near future looks potentially very worrying: maximised player mobility will mean a much higher turnover of playing staff year on year, resultant problems of team cohesion and maintenance of quality, and the spectre of turning into a 'feeder' for the elite teams. The same situation pertains now in the English lower leagues. There are few long-term contracts, and high turnovers of playing staff. While Arsenal might give Adebayor a five-year contract, after one successful season, it seems that contract has little effective force.
What's the alternative? I'm not sure. One alternative is to 'do a Bolton': accept the changing nature of the market and recruit older players whose market value will be less than rising stars, in the hopes that this will provide some kind of continuity. Another is simply to accept the situation, carry on, and hope to retain enough good and sensible young men (Fabregas, Clichy, Sagna) to win a trophy every two or three years. For this is the real problem: the bonds of player 'loyalty' to club are now pretty much dissolved, except among a few. For Adebayor (who has form on this: see his departure from Monaco) or Cristiano Ronaldo, it is their 'right' to demand ever-higher wages, and also to demand a transfer to a bigger club if these demands are not met. For them, a contract has no binding force; they blindingly, maddeningly perform their status as the football commodity, their labour power sold to the highest bidder.
It may not be 'football' as it has been, but it is late capitalism, in full effect.

The Arsenal, again

The recent rumours surrounding Adebayor have sent me into a 'what is it all for' gloom with regard to the Arsenal once again. At least massive continental clubs cherry-picking top talent isn't only happening to us this season, but it's disappointing.
Andre Arshavin would be a wonderful addition to the Arsenal passing style, but I'm not hoping he'll come, as he probably won't. With the technical ability of Hleb but with more penetration and end-product, Arshavin was sensational in the Euro 2008match against Holland. In fact, he reminds me more of Messi than an out-and-out striker.
With Hleb's mooted departure, I have been thinking about Arsenal wingers. I first saw Arsenal when George Armstrong was in the side, but remember little about him. It was George Graham's trick, in the late 80s, to use the purchase of a winger to kick-start a title challenge. In the summer of 1988, GG bought Brian Marwood from Sheffield Wednesday, who introduced himself to Arsenal fans in the pre-season Wembley 'Makita Tools' tournament (them's were the days) by scoring against Tottenham in a 4-0 drubbing. Marwood was very important in the 89 championship side, and he scored the day I stood in the Clock End as news from the Hillsborough FA Cup semi-final began to trickle through. Marwood, today a rather arsey Sky co-commentator (3rd string) (though he doesn't seem to resent the Arse as much as David Platt), lasted but two years, because in 1990 GG went Scandanavian and bought Anders Limpar.
This was in the days before a Scandanavian purchase meant brown paper envelopes (think Pal Lydersen). Anders was a slight, speedy winger, with a low sense of gravity but with a rather fragile sense of balance - at speed, a minor touch could send him spinning to the penalty area turf like an over-wound clockwork toy. He was skilful too - one season, a chip from the half-way line over Bruce Grobelaar and into the net threatened to perturb On The Ball's Goal of the Season competition (they had to add it on - it didn't win, though). Limpar had a kind of quick, stuttering running style, but he was the model for the kind of penetrative winger who cut in and scored goals rather than whipping over crosses that was to find its best (so far) exponent in Marc Overmars. (Much as I loved - and think we still miss - Bob Pires, he wasn't that kind of player. Nor was Freddie Ljungberg.) Limpar and Overmars were cut from the same cloth as footballers - small, very quick, an eye for goal, dark hair over angular northern european features. And each only lasted about two seasons. Limpar was sold to Everton, Overmars to Barcelona - but neither recaptured their Arsenal magic at their new clubs.
Between Anders and Overmars the list of wide players strikes horror into the long-time Arsenal fan: 'Steady' Eddie McGoldrick (who I remember only every having one decent game for the Arsenal, away at Liege in the CWC), Jimmy Carter, Stefan Malz. We even failed to sign Andy Sinton from QPR in 1994, who chose Sheffield Wednesday over Arsenal! Dog days indeed.
So, Arshavin, Vela, Walcott, Rosicky, even Hleb - Arsenal sides perform best when they have a penetrative goalscoring winger but who, next season, will give us this edge?